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April begins Autism Acceptance Month
Selected highlights in national health expenditures by major payer include:
Medicare: Medicare spending growth is projected to average 7.2% over 2021-2030, the fastest rate among the major payers. Projected spending growth of 11.3% in 2021 is expected to be mainly influenced by an assumed acceleration in utilization growth, while growth in 2022 of 7.5% is expected to reflect more moderate growth in use, as well as lower fee-for-service payment rate updates and the phasing in of sequestration cuts. Spending is projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2023. By 2030, Medicare spending growth is expected to slow to 4.3% as the Baby Boomers are no longer enrolling and as further increases in sequestration cuts occur.
Medicaid: Average annual growth of 5.6% is projected for Medicaid spending for 2021-2030. Medicaid spending growth is expected to have accelerated to 10.4% in 2021, associated with rapid gains in enrollment. Over 2022 and 2023, Medicaid spending growth is expected to slow to 5.7% and 2.7%, respectively, as a result of projected enrollment declines, after the end of the COVID-19 PHE, when the continuous enrollment condition under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act expires and states begin to disenroll beneficiaries no longer eligible for Medicaid. Over 2025-2030, spending growth is projected to increase an average 5.6%, in part due to the expiration of Disproportionate Share Hospital payment cap reductions set for late-2027. Spending is projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2028.
Private Health Insurance and Out-of-Pocket: For 2021-2030, private health insurance spending growth is projected to average 5.7%. A rebound in utilization is expected to primarily influence private health insurance spending growth over 2021 (6.3%) and 2022 (8.3%), and then normalize through 2024. Over 2025-2030, as health spending trends by private payers tend to be influenced on a lagged basis by changes in income growth, average growth for private health insurance spending is then expected to slow to 4.8% by 2030 in response to slowing income growth earlier in the projection period. Out-of-pocket expenditures are projected to grow at an average rate of 4.6% over 2021-2030 and to represent 9% of total spending by 2030 (ultimately falling from its current historic low of 9.4% in 2020).
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